Any opinion as to whether they overpaid and can support a product line with the complexity of HLA and not screw it up.
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it's founder. With the change of leadership and PS mostly out of the picture, customers are very likely to be nervous and concerned about the long term and thus look elsewhere.handsome
You have to ask several questions. Foremost is was this worth 4x? I maintain no but Thermo did not understand the market and thus overpaid. Why? Think about the following:
1. Most of their base is divided almost evenly between bone marrow transplant testing and solid organ. In bone marrow this is a very price sensitive market with single digit growth and a large portion moving to sequencing and next gen sequencing. Bottom line is sales long term will reduce even to the most conservative modeling.
2. Solid organ is not as price sensitive but data in the industry clearly has uncovered over the past years a significant cross reactivity and performnce issue for OL and it's competitor. All you need is a new competitor with better performance to capture the highly dissatisfied base business and there are several in the wings designed to do just that. Again, the most conservative model would peg this as a short to long term revenue reduction.
3. OL has high loyalty to it's founder. With the change of leadership and PS mostly out of the picture, customers are very likely to be nervous and concerned about the long term and thus look elsewhere. I would expect this to hive a med-high liklihood of occurring and again thus impact sales negatively.
Bottom line is Thermo's lack of knowledge of this market is likely why they overpaid.
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OL has been on the blocks for years. The only surprising thing is that some company actually paid that much. I am curious if Thermo Fisher even knows much about the transplant market, let alone how to spell HLA.
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